Wednesday, 11 October 2017


Brexit zealots believe the UK will be better-off after Brexit, even after a Hard-Brexit, or indeed, after a No-Deal-Brexit that takes us over "The Cliff Edge". These enthusiasts are daring, entrepreneurial Brits, who fear nothing and see only opportunities when change occurs. 

Timid REMAINERS, such as I, see disruption, disengagement from 500 million wealthy EU consumers and eventually our national bankruptcy, unless we stop the Brexit process - now. Because the UK government hasn't yet begun to count the costs, this article can only indicate the colossal damage. These are examples of what will impoverish us:

1. Currency Devaluation. Since the June 2016 Brexit Referendum, sterling has fallen 20%. The UK has a global import bill that is £90 billion more than our exports. The cost is £17 billion a year, (£17B / 32M households = £531 per family) every year. And it could get worse. Our living costs are soaring. This devaluation cost will not be recovered. It is money down the Brexit drain. 
JOBS: £17,000,000,000 / £27,000 average UK pay = 629,000 jobs.

2. Isolation and competition. Some of our top exports are vulnerable to being easily picked off by rivals and raiders. 

The City, must retain European Passporting Rights to keep its global position. We have until 29 March 2019 to get our act in order. Most banks and even ancient Lloyds of London are already opening new EU centres and EU trading companies. The City employs 454,700 souls and pays £70 billion UK tax annually - year after year. Cities that want our brokers, banks and banks jobs, include Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin and Madrid. All large EU cities will offer incentives for our 1,000 years old City to relocate. That's £70 billion lost, year after year, up for grabs. European cities will offer personal incentives and easy access to the 500,000,000 EU Citizens - linking with, in turn, their long established access to neighbouring markets in Russia, Asia and The Middle and Far East.

Goldman Sachs
Lloyds of London (insurance)
Lloyds Bank
and hundreds more.

Estimated by The City - job losses (see below) 230,000 jobs. (230,000 x £27,000 =£6.2 Billion for 10 years = £62 billion)


Top end industries lose jobs

Boeing Aircraft Corporation has persuaded Trump to slap a 300% (three-times the price) tariff on the UK's Bombardier aircraft. That means US customers will have to pay 4 times what we ask - with 3/4 going to the US Treasury. No country will buy our planes if we can't supply and maintain UK aircraft in America; they will assume we have lost our reliability and world position. 

In the same week, BAE systems is putting 2,000 specialist engineers out of work, from the Euro-Typhoon-Fighter project and presumably our involvement in the £4 billion a year  European Airbus Consortium, employing 6,000 in the UK with 110,000 associated UK jobs, will swiftly end. Europe doesn't want a partner who spurns Europeans. 

To keep Nissan in Britain, Brexiters have promised to pay any increased tariffs on exports to the EU. WTO car tariff is 9.8% on average £19K Nissan is £1,862 on 500,000 EU Nissan cars = £931 million per year bill to UK Gov. Nissan in the North-East employs 8,000 which in turn supports another 32,000 supply chain jobs. Such UK Government subsidies are unsustainable. How long before Trump and the EU slap on a 300% tariff?  Potential Job losses 40,000

No fly Europe: What deals do we need to keep our planes up in Europe?

STOP BREXIT. This article takes about 10 hours to write. If I /we had 1,000 hours, I could list thousands of companies that will lose millions of jobs if Brexit proceeds. Most industries predict substantial job losses:

BREXIT: The UK Chemical Industry Response - Chemical

Industry Response. Results of the CIA member survey on Brexit ... CIA Brexit survey overview . ....UK government policies to increase R&D spending .

Food industry shaken by hard Brexit prospects, survey reveals ... › Business › Food & drink industry

12 Oct 2016 - Concern grows over price rises, import duties and staff retention from fallout of ... Food and drink is by far the largest manufacturing sector in the UK, ... what Brexit means for the industry, added: “Government and industry ...

UK firms brace for further Brexit price rises, surveys show | Business ... › Business › Manufacturing sector

8 Jan 2017 - UK firms brace for further Brexit price rises, surveys show .... government is able to provide greater certainty and the industry is able to manage ...

Assessment of the UK post-referendum economy - Office for National ...

21 Sep 2016 - The view from ONS of the emerging picture of the UK economy after the ... It uses a range of ONS data including prices, trade, employment and retail ... Some outside surveys carried out in the days and weeks ... The small decline in July was across most manufacturing industries, ... Treasury analysis shows leaving EU would cost British ... - Gov.uk

18 Apr 2016 - Britain will be worse off by £4300 a year per household if Britain votes to leave ... HM Treasury analysis shows leaving EU would cost British households ... Both the services industry and advanced manufacturing are reliant on ...

Can we assume that UK.Gov is adding up the numbers? Will they tell us? 

3. Sitting Stuck Duck: Until the UK gets its trading relationship with Europe into contracts (we have about 70,000 different product and services contracts agreed, over 60 years, with the EU at present); no major trading-bloc can conclude new contracts with us. Because --- such new direct contracts with the UK will have to be examined for conflicts with, for example, Canada's existing contracts with the EU. Other nations or groups of nations are not rushing to join the UK in a lemming-like suicide pact, over the cliff-edge. They might be prepared to die for their own country - but are not prepared to die for ours. This is not war; its business. 

Like Trump, if we beg other OECD nations to make trade deals - they will sadly see the opportunity to slap 300% tariffs on our goods and services. Standing alone in the world, bruised, battered but unbowed, we won't have a leg to stand on, or a friend to lean on.  

We are stuck and paralysed. 

4.  But say BREXITERS - "for example BMW earn billions of Euros in exports to Britain". Yes they do; along with Mercedes, VW and others. Bloomberg estimates those sales represent 18,000 German jobs. A lot to lose. But, without post-Brexit trade agreements we and Germany will never unravel the maze of international parts imported and exported to make a right-hand-drive BMW and supply the servicing network and employee exchanges. Tariff free EU free-markets, built from 1950 onwards, smooth most of these problems - until Brexit. After Brexit, all the trans-border parts will be subject to a range of tariffs and of VAT. The queues at Custom and Excise borders will be long and tedious. The paper-work will be monumental. It will take years and years and years to sort out. There are 150 BMW showrooms & servicing - say, 30 employees = 4,500 jobs at risk.

Similarly for medicines - and medical equipment - and medical staff. All licensed to work in other countries. All such licenses will be cancelled and have to be reset - worldwide. As with the 300% Trump tariff, all trading partners will seek to drive hard bargains. The UK will fight back - and find imports we can charge to those combative countries. Say, 20 years of detailed negotiations before we can sell Anadin-Extra in Rome or Los Angeles. Or before we can supply fine surgeons to foreign countries - and hire skilled people from overseas. 

5. City jobs will go to Europe by Christmas: Guardian 5 Oct 17 "A top official at the Bank of England has warned the government it has less than 12 weeks to agree a transition deal with the EU to prevent City firms starting to move jobs and business out of the UK.

Sam Woods, a deputy governor at the Bank, said City firms would activate their Brexit contingency plans if there was no deal on a transition period by Christmas which would mitigate the impact of a hard Brexit in March 2019. Woods also repeated his warning of the strain being put on the Bank’s ability to police the financial sector as a result of the changes firms needed to make.
In an annual speech to an audience of financiers at London’s Mansion House, Woods said City firms would become more complicated as a result of the restructuring they would need to undertake." 
6. We are hamstrung. Our own industries and businesses can wait no longer. We are losing jobs daily to Europe due to the uncertainty. We will either have to comply with EU or US trade protocols in order to export to those two major blocs. Trump has shown that he will give us no favours. The EU is becoming increasingly irritated at the juvenile "negotiating" antics of Grinning David Davis, and Jester Boris Johnson - the UK's diplomatic team; and irritated by the vague slogans trotted out by PM Theresa May. We are close to the point where the EU will simply get bored and leave us to sink or swim, as a once great, now minor player, on the world stage. We cannot do deals with the other nations until our position with the EU is clear. 

Can we think of any activity or industry that will escape these turbulent new-trade-deals? No we can't. Each and every product and service is affected. Competitors will flood our products with doubts. We will be tasked with proving  and guaranteeing the quality of lonely, independent Britain's offerings; as all Red-Tape is cut away. 

Trade first - then we'll go on to complicated, shared activities like The Channel Tunnel, EU Citizens in Britain and vice-versa, Energy, Defence, Nuclear Weapons, NATO, Interpol, Spies, Airlines, Food, Agriculture, Ports, Tourism, Terrorism, Foreign Students, Customs Posts, VAT and Taxes, NHS, Visas, Film Industry, Entertainment, Language, Broadcasting, Telecoms, Wildlife, Clean air, Clean beaches, Clean water, Fishing quotas, etc etc etc etc etc. Will our civil servants please temporarily desist from mass suicide until I've finished this article - there might be a way through to sanity. If not, we will hold a mass Hara-Kiri and ritual immolation of public servants, on a bonfire of 70,000 ex-EU agreements, in Whitehall. 

I'm waiting to hear from acclaimed Brexiters: Tight-Lipped-Theresa, Grim-John-Redwood, Laughing-David-Davis, Bumbling-Boris-the-Clown, Et-Tu-Gove, Iain-Kick-a-Cripple-Duncan-Smith, Commissar-Corbyn - and of course from Fascist-Farage, all of whom will doubtless have fully worked out tactics and strategies to solve all these 70,000 problems - in a trice. Do you believe in fairies? 

7. Scotland sells Scotch, Tweed, Salmon, Insurance & Penions, and it sells tourism. It will soon have enough Clean Green Cheap energy to supply the whole UK. It voted REMAIN. The nation wants to stay in Europe - and in the United Kingdom. It cannot do both. As the rapid decline of the UK becomes evident and irreversible, as our industries drain away while all our ex-global partners cleave to the EU and/or the USA, Scotland will see that we are a weak prop to depend on. Scotland will quit the United Kingdom, to avoid being dragged under. 

Regions with significant populations
 Scotland   4,446,000 (2011)
(Scottish descent only)[2]
 United StatesB6,006,955 & 5,393,554[3][4]
 New ZealandF12,792[7]
 Isle of Man2,403[8]
 Hong KongG1,459[9][10][11]

8. When Scotland leaves the UK, Northern Ireland will join southern Ireland and the EU. The Belfast Diaspora is estimated as 10 million. It too will quit the UK. They do not want to go back 25 years into civil-war and have a hard-border that blocks trade, commerce and kinship. We will lose Belfast. Its future lies in Europe. The EU might be large enough to be able to persuade Trump to drop the 300% import-duty on Belfast's aeroplanes; the UK has tried and failed to appease or mitigate his America First policy.

9. Although 60% of Londoners voted REMAIN, it is unlikely that Greater London will make its own pact with Europe. The conurbation, most of south-east England, will probably go down with the ship. London is perhaps the ship. But, The City of London, The Square Mile, has its own government and mayor and has been independent for hundreds of years. It has done trade deals with most European cities for centuries. Rather than lose its position in the world, The City is likely to act as a City State and make its own trading terms with the EU. Greater London, with 5 million families, could be saved by being pulled along in its wake. Even the most fervent QUITTERS didn't vote for penury and bankruptcy. Why should London follow the North East and Lincolnshire into decades of poverty? 

10. Finally, the solution might be to remember the Partition of India in 1947; which created Pakistan for Muslims and India for Hindus.   We could split Great Britain's 63 million population between LEAVE (Wales with Birmingham perhaps?) and REMAIN areas. The BREXITERS could cast off all the burdensome chains of EU contracts and sail off from Cardiff into the sunset to make buccaneering deals around the globe. The REMAINERS could re-group, clustered around City-States and remain a member of the European Union with all 70,000 trade protocols restored. The two regions, both 30 million strong, could take time, decades even, to create mutually acceptable trade deals. Will they both be nuclear powers? Will it require a Customs Barrier? Peace in our Time. 

How shall we price-up the consequences? Employment statistics are collected often and, with caution, are almost reliable. I suggest we count jobs gained and jobs lost - valued at the UK average wage of £27,000 a year. So it becomes a head count of primary, secondary and tertiary jobs. 

STOP BREXIT - or we are doomed. 


THE DIVORCE BILL - Mel Cooper asks "How much?"

My understanding of the divorce payment is that the UK as the 3rd largest Member and active participant has contractually underwritten our Membership share of costs of hundreds of projects that run till at least 2020 and some, such as Airbus, science, education and medical projects, which are long term. The partnership argument is that had we quit 5 years ago, the EU would have formed smaller projects without relying on our cash-input. Some of those project funds would have been spent in the UK. So arriving at a precise settlement is complicated – but not unsolvable. It seems to be agreed by all that we do have obligations to pay, as we are quitting in the middle of the current 2014-20 budget period – but how much? Amounts mentioned range from E15B to E100B. If we pay our annual net E9B for 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 – that’s E36 billion. But the major long term projects we will quit, will double or treble the amount. Best guess is $70 Billion.

The total Budget 2014-20 is Euro 1 087 197 000 000 (1.1 trillion)

Multiannual Financial Framework-European Commission › European Commission › Budget
Mid-term review/revision of the Multiannual financial framework 2014-2020. 'I am proud that the EU budget has allowed us to meet political priorities, to ensure ...

(EUR million - current prices)
1. Smart and Inclusive Growth
73 512
513 563
1a: Competitiveness for growth and jobs
19 925
142 130
1b: Economic, social and territorial cohesion
53 587
371 433
2. Sustainable Growth: Natural Resources
60 191
420 034
of which: Market related expenditure and direct payments
44 146
308 734
3. Security and citizenship
2 578
17 725
4. Global Europe
9 432
66 262
5. Administration
9 918
69 584
of which: Administrative expenditure of the institutions
8 007
56 224
6. Compensations
155 631
1 087 197
as a percentage of GNI
142 906
1 026 287
as a percentage of GNI
Margin available
Own Resources Ceiling as a percentage of GNI

  • MAY BE YES MAY BE NO - BREXIT STALLS   - Media and Moguls behind Brexit. I believe that the main driver for these super-rich offshore villains is to continue to evade tax. There is £2 to £3 trillion of UK assets hidden in tax-havens - which could be repatriated if HMRC cared to collect it.
  • NIck Clegg also lists the names of the rich men behind the scenes. He recommends promoting Sir John Major to lead us out of the dark quagmire, to the sunny uplands of EU cooperation. Clegg fails to mention the tax-haven hoards; which would pay all our deficits and reverse Tory austerity. 
  • How To Stop Brexit (And Make Britain Great Again), EPUB eBook

Brexit could trigger next financial crisis, warns London Stock Exchange chief - 18th Oct 17

Mr Rolet has said that Brexit could cost the City of London up to 230,000 jobs if the Government fails to provide a clear plan for post-Brexit operations

Brexit will be 'like the Blitz', OECD chief tells UK - 17th Oct 17

Britain faces a ‘bumpy road ahead’ but must ‘stay calm and carry on’, the head of the influential organisation warns

TELEGRAPH - Brexit tariffs - Cars 9.8%

Monday, 9 October 2017


Al Capone - Gangster Economies.
9 OCT 2017 - (a conversation; start a the bottom of the page).

Dear John


The EU is not a political union - it is a trading-bloc. It has no powers to intervene in Members' governments. You and all Brexiters would complain bitterly if it did. All 27 EU members have a veto. Over 60 years, we have mutually made the 70,000 items detailed trading agreements that the deeply stupid UK is now abandoning. It will take 20 years and all our bureaucrats' energies to replace them. Twenty years of a paralysed, hamstrung UK.

Greece was/is different because it asked for huge EC grants to save its economy and banks etc. The European Central Bank is still a minor player in world terms.  

Low interest rates are worldwide - remember it started in Japan 30 years ago, when that Yakuza gangster-economy siphoned offshore all Japan's liquidity and then started to borrow it back. Other sociopathic-gangster regions, all hugely enriched by advances in science & technology,  followed suit, siphoning out assets which the gangsters hid in tax-havens. This immense surplus of cash/assets washing round the world, searching for safe havens with guaranteed returns, now means that any such investment offered is swamped with offshore funds - driving down rates. Think what would happen if the UK put its Base Rate up to 7.5%. We would end-up pouring trillions into gangster-tax-haven-deposits, of overseas rogues with London bank-accounts. 

Public Private Partnership loans and Student Loans funding at +6% are examples of dirty-money pouring into Government guaranteed loan-sharking, where billions of criminal funds can be laundered and protected under secret "Commercially Sensitive" contracts.  Southern European countries such as Portugal (once, like Greece, a no-tax gangster-economy) have benefited hugely from EU programmes, to educate, build infrastructure and build industries. I was involved in such programmes 1990-2000 in the EU-UK teams. Brussels does not impose on Europe, but it does. by mutual-agreement, promote stability and long term growth across what were once hundreds of warring primitive gang-territories - run by gangsters such as the Mafia. 

Fascists like Farage want to return to chaotic and cruel gangster-economies. The EU stability policy extends to all its borders - even into North Africa; with mixed results. Mobile phone coverage and controlled low charges is an example of the policy succeeding.

Why doesn’t Farage, and his fellow fascists - promote the break-up of The United States of America? Home Rule for New York City. That would open the door to hundreds of (armed) gangster-local-governments and the rise of new gangster-oligarchs.

Let us pray that it never happens.



Dear Noel,
The power in the EU is Merkel and the ECB and Juncker and the IMF. These 3 rule the roost. Merkel invited the immigrants with no consulting any of the other 27. The consequences ricochet around Europe. The ECB does its own thing and the low / negative interest rate policy has decimated pension funds all over Europe - public and private.

It is totally undemocratic.

The point of Maastricht was ever closer union. That's when Brexit really started. The full outward manifestation came later in 2016 but the move started with Maastricht.

It is not democratic. It puts its Brussels centre above the people. Look at how it has sacrificed the common people of the Southern European countries.

It's policies contain the seeds of its downfall and sooner rather than later.



Dear John,
They have to persuade 28 member states; all who have veto power. Let's stick to what is reality not to what might be in 50 years. The UK is giving up its veto and all influence - it will bankrupt us.
Noel Hodson - Author

Dear Noel -  Not so. The EU wants ever closer union. An EU army. An EU budget. The EEC was based on trading terms but that is a long time ago. Compulsory quotas for immigrants. That's one of the reasons Poland and Hungary are not happy. The EU intent is a European super state. Listen carefully to what they say. - John

Dear John - EC /EU does not govern Member states. It only arranges agreed trading terms. "Loss of Sovereignty" is silly Brexit propaganda for the moronic masses. Defence, Tax, Housing, Pensions, Education, Transport, NHS, Law, Police, Parks &  Grass Cutting ... what parts of our Budget do you think the EU rules? - Noel

Dear Noel,
It was a trading block as the EEC but now it sees itself as the European government. Surely that is self apparently obvious. The EUs only response to any problem is "more EU"  It will do all it can to stop states leaving, read Variofakis for the modus operandi of that one. The time comes when more and more people decide that it is against their interests - and countries leave, or there is civil war to try to stop them leaving.
States coming together and states moving apart is cyclical and we are in the moving apart phase of the cycle now. This applies to the USA as well.  You're right I am anti EU. - John 

Dear John - I thought you wanted to reduce the influence of the EU - not increase it as a political overlord. It is a trading-bloc not the government of Europe. What legal right does it  have to intervene in Catalonia?  Home Rule for Brookside! - Noel

Dear Noel
Regardless of when the ideas and desires for separation started, they are alive now and it is the way that the EU responds to them that will matter.  The EU has failed to condemn the terrible violence inflicted by the Spanish National police last weekend, I think that will rebound and also rebound on the Madrid govt. It's a recipe for civil disorder & maybe civil war.  Business and finance will run away from the EU if this happens, and in fact this has already started. The EU increasingly shows itself by its actions to be anti-business, that will not help the EU to grow and prosper. Without international investment the EU will shrivel.

Dear John 
If the Catalonia struggle started in 1737 - doesn't that predate the EU?
Or, is everything the fault of Angela Merkel? That way madness lies.

From: John
Sent: 06 October 2017 09:41   To: Noel 

Catalonia referendum: Interesting map. Some separatist movements very serious. It's one of the ways the EU breaks up.

Wednesday, 4 October 2017


The point made by this Kim Jong-Un cartoon is that there has to be a limit to the guns/weapons American householders are allowed; maybe more than a Bowie-Knife, but less than tactical-nuclear-weapons or ICBMs. What is that limit? Where should the line be drawn? 

Outside the cities, the US is a hunting, shooting, fishing, rural society – hence the gun culture. The Wild-West romantic myths exaggerate reality – over 80 pioneering years there were only about 30 men killed in face-to-face duelling gun-fights. The rest is male macho Hollywood fantasy.

"There were 32 gunfights and shootouts in the Wild West from 1840 to 1918. There have been 173 mass shootings in America this year. That may have had a great deal to do with the fact that – despite the NRA’s attempts to glorify it is a period where manly vigilantes were free to be men – gun control was stricter in the Wild West than it is today."

The Kinder-Egg is banned. The gun is legal. Spot the loony.
Trump supporters blame Obama for restricting their "Right to Bear Arms". After the SANDYHOOK infant school massacre, gun sales went up – on a NRA (National Rifle Association) false rumour that gun sales would be restricted by Obama. It was a gun-makers' PR stunt to drive up sales. Trump's equally demented friends in the NRA said that the infants and teachers should have been armed to be able to defend themselves. 

Trump hates Obama and is intent on destroying everything he achieved, good or bad. It’s a hangover from Fred Trump’s KKK days. Black people, the slave underclass, can’t be allowed to succeed; or allowed to inhabit Trump properties. But Trump lied (so what's new) Obama did not restrict guns:

Obama, Sept. 9: I don’t want any misunderstanding when you all go home, and you’re talking to your buddies, and they say, "Aw, he wants to take my gun away." You’ve heard it here; I’m on television, so everybody knows it. I believe in the Second Amendment. I believe in people’s lawful right to bear arms. I will not take your shotgun away. I will not take your rifle away. I won’t take your handgun away. … There are some common-sense gun safety laws that I believe in. But I am not going to take your guns away. So if you want to find an excuse not to vote for me, don’t use that one. … It just ain’t true.

In the most liberal States even mental patients can buy repeating pistols and rifles. This latest lunatic, Paddock, (beware retired accountants - we are dangerous dudes) altered some of his 42 guns to be machine-guns. His kill total of 59 doesn’t reach the US daily total of 80 persons shot.  21 more Americans need to be killed that day to keep up the average. Oddly, household gun ownership has declined by 18%. There’s now only 300 million lethal weapons in private hands. Most are never fired. A gun is the most useless purchase made - even more useless than the cheese-fondue-set collecting dust in the back of your kitchen cupboard. So the gun industry has to create fear-broadcasts to maintain sales of guns and ammo.  Massacres are good for business. 

 With 300 million guns and an overkill capacity of 10 times the US population – any foreign invaders will think twice – and probably not invade. 80 gun-deaths a day may be a price the US thinks is worth paying as an insurance premium against invasion.


5 percent: America's population relative to the world population.
50 percent: Amount of the guns on Earth owned by Americans, CNN reports.
Decreasing: The number of Americans who own guns. John Sides posts the graph at right, based on data from Gallup and the General Social Survey, showing the decline.
Increasing: The number of guns those American gun owners each have.
18 percentage points: Amount the share of households who own guns decreased from 1973 to 2010. Three decades ago, 50 percent of households owned guns, in 2010, just 32 percent do, according to University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center.

Beretta pistol - fires 19 rounds in 3 seconds. Why? 

"You have a true friend and champion in the White House. No longer will federal agencies be coming after law-abiding gun owners," Trump said in his speech. "No longer will the government be trying to undermine your rights and your freedoms as Americans. Instead, we will work with you, by your side."

While Trump, as well as his fellow speakers at the NRA meeting, decried Obama for his stance on guns, sales of firearms over the past eight years surged, largely due to fears that Obama would implement tougher gun control laws. Crazed NRA zealots cite Chicago, with tough gun laws, as suffering as many gun deaths as elsewhere. They conveniently ignore that the guns come over the state border from Mike Pence's territory, Indiana - where mad people are allowed to buy and own guns. USA wide federal controls are required to limit these weapons of mass destruction. 

Are you sane? You are not entirely alone. "Respondents from both parties support more research into the causes of gun violence, the poll showed. Nearly 80 percent of Democrats and 66 percent of Republicans said they would support the next president, who takes office next January after the Nov. 8 election, pushing for more research.

Republicans are split on efforts to tighten gun control more broadly. Forty-four percent of those polled said the next president should work to tighten federal gun control laws, while 49 percent were opposed.
Sixty-three percent of Americans overall said they would like to see the next president push for stricter gun laws."    Megan Cassella, ReutersJan. 13, 2016, 6:10 AM

Tuesday, 16 April 2013